Week 4 Thursday Night Preview: Cowboys vs. Giants

The Cowboys feel stuck in the mud. Normally, pundits discount the fact that the Giants and Commanders are inept, and Dallas overpowers underwhelming teams in the NFC and loses to the playoff teams. Fast-forward to the end of the regular season, and the Cowboys have won 10 or more games. Something feels different about this season.

Currently, the defense is 28th in DVOA. The secondary is playing well (12th), but the run defense is abysmal. But isn't this by design? Dan Quinn and the Cowboys' front office have opted to neglect the interior of the defense for years. Then, in '23, they drafted Mazi Smith, a gap plugger, in the first round but tried to get him to slim down and rush the passer.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy hired his old nemesis, Mike Zimmer when Quinn left. Smith was then asked to gain weight back. Still, the Cowboys didn't put a support structure around him. The roster had no LBs, but Dallas did bring in Eric Kendricks, who was familiar with Zimmer's defense. So far, he has played well, but the interior of the D-line has not.

Injuries and a lack of talent are apparent, and leave it to Dallas for those issues on the interior for their defense to show up in an unprecedented year in the NFL, where offenses are finally running the ball. In Week 1, a depleted Browns team looked pedestrian and the front-running Cowboys looked dominant.

Then the Saints came marching in with 432 yards, 190 on the ground, and a 44-19 blowout. That performance was followed by a 28-25 loss to the Ravens, which saw another 400+ yard performance, but 274 of those on the ground. We are currently at DEFCON five regarding the defense in Dallas.

The offense isn't performing well, either. Sure, Dak and CeeDee are getting their yards, but the run game is lacking. McCarthy has never played complementary football since his time in Dallas, but this year, he literally has no one to run the ball. Zeke is a shell of his former self; Rico Dowdell is a fun name, but he isn't producing much in games. And, how could he, only getting eight carries a game? Still, they have found a way to be 16th in run DVOA, dead in the middle of the NFL.

Dallas' game against the Giants has become a must-win, not because of their record. Being 1-2 in the NFL isn't a death sentence, but the road is about to get a lot tougher after New York. The Cowboys will have to go to Pittsburgh, then play Detroit, San Fransisco, Atlanta, Philly, and Houston before they get another East opponent in the Commanders. There is a world in which the Cowboys lose Thursday Night, on a short week, lose to the Giants in a nail-biter, and spiral to a 1-9 start.

The real issue with the Cowboys is the entire program. They have a lame-duck coach, contract issues that wait too long, handcuffing the team in free agency, and the roster didn't get an update. Yes, the Cowboys have arguably some of the best players at their position: Dak, CeeDee, Micah, and Diggs, but it takes a team to win in the NFL.

Dak and CeeDee don't have the supporting cast they need to improve their play. Tank Lawrence and Parsons are great bookends on defense, but there is nothing up the middle of the defense. Trevon Diggs is returning from a major injury and playing well, along with the secondary as a whole, but teams can control the game on the ground.

Dallas is a constant front-running defense. They need a lead to let Micah and Tank loose and let their talented, man-oriented secondary do its job locking down WRs. This vicious cyclical defense worked in the regular season until now.

New York will enter the game with confidence, too. They are at home and coming off a win against the Browns. Though Daniel Jones looked incompetent in Week 1 against the Vikings, we are now finding out that Minnesota might be for real. A close loss to the Commanders hurt, but they bounced back.

Now, the Giants get a reeling Cowboy team. In a recent locker room interview, Nickel Jourdan Lewis stated that attention to detail on defense 'has always been the problem.' The Giants have an opportunity to seize the moment here and get to 2-2, something that looked unfathomable after Week 1.

New York's offense isn't terrible. They rank 19th in DVOA and can run the ball. I'm sure they regret paying Jones and letting Saquan walk to the Eagles (he looks great, by the way), but it's too late to worry about that.

There is excitement to be had for the Giants. The top end of their draft looks like all hits. Ni Dru Phillips and Safety Tyler Nubin are instant starters. Offensively, Malik Nabers looks the part of a #1 WR and TE Theo Johnson is a starter. What more could you ask for? Even sixth-round pick Darius Muasau is playing well in a starting role.

The Giants have two really good Edges Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibedeaux. The Cowboys' Tackles have struggled at times this year against the Edges they've seen so far. Inside, Dexter Lawrence is one of the best in the business. Defensively, the Giants can make the Cowboys predictable.

Dak and CeeDee should have big games, but the issue will be game control and scoring. The Cowboys are great at passing in between the 30s, but short yardage and the Red Zone are major issues. Currently, the Cowboys are 28th in EPA/play from the +29 in. The Giants are 19th in the same metric defensively. Interestingly, the Cowboys have the worst Red Zone defense in the NFL.

I see this game coming down to the Cowboys having a little more star power on offense to pull one out. The Giants are going to keep this close. The -5.5 line is pretty wide, considering what we know about both these teams heading into a prime-time game on a short week.

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