Week 11 Preview - A Clash of DVOA Titans

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Scott Bouska
Scott Bouska

Here’s a sneak-preview of Week 11 in the NFL, where the midseason narrative gets juicier than a teabag in hot water — and the advanced metrics back up the hype.

Seahawks @ Rams — A Clash of DVOA Titans

  • Why It Matters: It’s Seahawks vs. Rams, both at 7–2, squaring off for control of the NFC West and maybe even early position for a top seed.

  • Advanced Stat Storyline: According to weighted DVOA (which gives more credence to recent performance), the Rams are lighting it up on offense (+26 %) and defending like it's 2022 and Aaron Donald still plays for them (~–13 %). The Seahawks aren’t just along for the ride — they have among the top overall DVOA in the league and elite special teams too.

  • Tactical Fun: Seattle loves to lean on play-action passing, and the Rams are notoriously bad at defending play-action. Combine that with explosive pass plays from JSN and Kupp, and you have the recipe for some fireworks.

  • Our Prediction: Rams 25, Seahawks 23. We like the Rams to win, but the Seahawks to cover.

Broncos vs. Chiefs — Gritty Defense vs. the Mahomes Circus

  • Why It Matters: The Chiefs are clawing to stay alive; the Broncos are trying to make a statement. This is not your typical AFC West laugher.

  • Advanced Stat Storyline: According to a betting-analytics deep dive, Denver has a +3.8% recent DVOA, while Kansas City is in negative territory (–6.4%). That’s wild for a team led by Mahomes, but the Broncos' explosive play rate and savvy defense are keeping them afloat.

  • Key Matchup: Denver's defense is classic bend but don't break — they allow short plays but don’t let things go boom too often. Meanwhile, KC is all about long, clock-burning drives.

  • Our Prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 21.

Lions @ Eagles — Sunday Night Tension

  • Why It Matters: It’s a primetime showdown between two serious playoff contenders. Detroit’s been surging, Philly’s trying to stay sharp.

  • Advanced Stat Storyline: While specific weighted-DVOA numbers are less publicly dissected for this game, we know Detroit’s point differential is strong, and their efficiency metrics suggest they’re not just a “flash in the pan.” (There’s a reason analytical models lean toward them in picks.)

  • Key Matchup: The Lions will want to sustain long, methodical drives; the Eagles might lean on their two-minute, big-play stuff. It’s a battle of pace vs. punch.

  • Our Prediction: Eagles 25, Lions 24 in a nail-biter.

Week 11 isn’t a mellow midseason week — it’s analytics meets drama. Whether it's the No.1 vs. No.2 DVOA juggernauts meeting in LA, the Broncos trying to FINALLY out-class their big brother Patrick Mahomes, or Detroit and Philly jockeying under the lights, the storylines are rich. And if you’re into nerd stats like DVOA or EPA, well, bring your slide rule — this week is your jam.

We'll keep it rolling in week 11. Look out for this week's best bets, as well as our predictions for all your primetime matchups. We look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.