The Biggest AFC West Game of the Season

Cover Image for The Biggest AFC West Game of the Season
Scott Bouska
Scott Bouska

The Stakes

Let’s set the scene: Denver is 8-2, riding a seven-game win streak and smelling like the heir apparent in the AFC West. Kansas City, meanwhile, is 5-4 and looking up, somewhat like the prodigal champ forced into an existential mid-season crisis. This isn’t just another Sunday; it’s Big Brother (KC) vs. Little Brother (Denver) in their backyard, except the little brother has grown out of braces and is now flexing. As one analyst put it:

This is the biggest AFC West game of the 2025 season.”“This is the biggest AFC West game of the 2025 season.

Advanced stats that matter

  1. Defensive-Dominance of the Broncos

    • Denver leads the NFL in sacks with 46 through ten games.

    • They also hold the league’s best third-down defense: opposing offenses convert only ~28.1% of third downs when facing them.

    • Kansas City allows just over 17 points per game this season. So: two defenses that say “meh” to freckles and mistakes. Offenses, beware.

  2. KC back to an ELITE offense

    • For KC: QB Patrick Mahomes is posting ~2,349 passing yards, 17 TDs, and just 5 interceptions so far this year—≈ 261 yards/game and 7.4 yards/attempt.

    • KC’s rush game? Not exactly Earth-shattering: ~121.2 yards/game, ranked ~12th, but it's been effective when the Chiefs need it most - they are 18 out of 20 converting 3rd/4th and 1 this season.

    • For Denver: Offense has been… serviceable, but there are questions. In the preview it’s noted that despite the record, the Bo Nix and the offense have been “unsightly” at times.

  3. Keys to Victory

    • For Denver: Pressure Mahomes. If you sack or flush him repeatedly, you make the “magic” show feel ordinary. Use that elite third-down defense. Force the Chiefs into long downs. Limit the turnovers.

    • For Kansas City: Get the offense into rhythm early. Don’t let the Denver D build narrative momentum. Run the ball enough to keep things honest. Avoid penalties (Denver leads the league in penalties + three-and-outs).

    • Wild card: Special teams or game-flow weirdness. When two defenses dominate, weird things tend to happen.

Denver has the home-field, the momentum, and clearly the defensive edge. But KC has the pedigree. The line started at Chiefs -3.5, and it has risen to KC -4.5. Which means vegas (and the public) belief in the Chiefs. But the Broncos has an 8-2 record, and have been historically tough on the Chiefs when playing in Denver.

Our Prediction: Kansas City 24, Denver 21. We don't expect a shoot-out - Denver's defense is elite - but this is a game the Chiefs need, and we expect them to be sharp coming out of the bye. Bo Nix, on the other hand, hasn't proven that he can consistently move the ball on anyone. When the chips are down, give us Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Spags.

We'll keep it rolling in week 11. Look out for this week's best bets, as well as our predictions for all your primetime matchups. We look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.