Seahawks at Cardinals TNF Preview

The NFC West is always a competitive division, and this year is no different. The 49ers are atop the division with a 3-0 record, although those three wins have come at the expense of the health of several of their key players (George Kittle on IR, Brock Purdy out for extended time, and Nick Bosa lost for the season).
Everyone else? They are all 2-1, including the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are coming off of an impressive performance last Sunday, even if it was against the Saints. Their defense looks dominant, Sam Darnold looks capable, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be one of the best receivers in Football. The Cardinals are also 2-1, although their two wins come against the Carolina Panthers and the lowly Saints – two of the worst teams in the league. Two 2-1 teams, but we’re not sure there is a quality win among them – so who has the upper hand on Thursday night?
When the Seahawks have the ball:
On paper, this is a matchup of two middle of the pack units. The Seahawks are 5th in the league in pts per game, but that’s buoyed by an explosion last week against the New Orleans Saints. Schematically, the Cardinals defense, who often plays 3 safeties, is built to stop the intermediate and deep shots that Sam Darnold loves to take. The question will be whether or not the Darnold, Kenneth Walker and Cooper Kupp can take advantage of the holds that the Arizona defense is likely to leave in the short-middle of the field? We expect the Cardinals defense to hold the Smith-Njigba in relative check, but do think the Seahawks will get creative with other ways to move the ball methodically downfield.
When the Cardinals have the ball:
There is no question who the best unit in this game is – it’s the Seahawks defense. The 2nd in points allowed per game, 7th in EPA per game, and 4th in explosive plays allowed. Mike MacDonald is one of the elite defensive play callers in the league, and he now has the talent in Seattle to pair along with his scheme. Kyler Murray and the Cardinal offense have not been explosive to date, and losing James Connor to a lower leg injury last week doesn’t help. MacDonald is sure to take away the Cardinals best play-maker, TE Trey McBride, which means if the Cardinals want to move the ball they will need Marvin Harrison Jr. to step in a way that he hasn’t been able to yet in his career. Can he do it?
Our Prediction: Our model and our eyes tell us the Seahawks are the better team in this one. Their defense is bordering on elite, we believe they will shut down the Cardinals offense, and Darnold, Walker, Smith-Njigba and Kupp will have just enough big plays to keep the Seahawks offense moving. Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20.
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