Falcons at Buccaneers TNF Preview

Cover Image for Falcons at Buccaneers TNF Preview
Scott Bouska
Scott Bouska

Why is this game on Thursday night? Well, this was supposed to be a battle of the two "heavy weights" in the NFC South. Instead, we've got a 4-9 Falcons team with Kirk Cousins playing quarterback against a 7-7 Bucs team that's quite literally limping to the finish (they last at home to the Saint last weekend. The Saints).

Regardless, they have to play game - so here goes nothing in terms of how we'd break it down for your viewing (and betting) pleasure.

Advanced Stats storylines

  • EPA per Play: The Tale of Two Offenses: Falcons offense is Hovering around league average in early-down rush EPA vs. the Buccaneers defense, which is Top-10 in success rate allowed on early-down passes, but bottom-10 on play-action defense.

  • Third Down Efficiency: Atlanta ranks in the lower third of the league in 3rd-and-medium conversion rate, mostly because their play-calling becomes a Mad Lib. Tampa, meanwhile, is dead average defensively—elite at stopping screens but allergic to stopping crossing routes. If this game comes down to 3rd & 4, just flip a coin, set it on fire, and walk away.

  • QB Pressure Rate: Buccaneers pressure rate generated: Top-8 thanks to a revitalized pass rush. This could get ugly for an aging Cousins.

Matchup to Watch: Falcons Run Game vs. Bucs Front

The Bucs are allowing under 1.5 yards before contact per rush, which is extremely stingy. The Falcons’ run game, however, ranks top-5 in designed-rush success rate, meaning when they decide to run something normal—not a reverse jet sweep double-option bubble toss—they are shockingly competent.

Who bends? Who breaks? Who calls a tight end sweep on 4th & 2? Stay tuned.

X-Factors

  • Atlanta: Explosive Play Rate - Top-10 in pass plays over 20 yards… when they remember they have wide receivers.

  • Tampa Bay: Red Zone TD Rate. Between the 20s? Pretty good. Inside the 20? They turn into a pumpkin with cleats.

  • Whichever team scores touchdowns instead of field goals probably wins, which is a revolutionary football insight.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20. Atlanta's defense has enough to keep this close. But the Bucs are still actually playing for something, are at home, and in the creamsicle throwbacks. Add-in a return from Mike Evans, and the Bucs pull it out (but don't cover)

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