Best NFL Thanksgiving slate ever

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Scott Bouska
Scott Bouska

Thanksgiving and Black Friday football make up one of the best viewing stretches of the NFL season, and there's a chance that the slate this year could be the best NFL schedule-makers have ever produced. Sure, they got a little lucky - the Chiefs are on the ropes, the Cowboys are surging and Joe Burrow is making his triumphant return. Still, the NFL has said they expect 50 Million viewers for Chiefs-Cowboys. 50 MILLION!

Thanksgiving and Black Friday football make up one of the best viewing stretches of the NFL season. These matchups give us divisional drama, superstar quarterbacks, playoff implications, and the annual reminder that the short week makes teams play like they stayed up until 2 a.m. making stuffing.

Let’s dig in.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Detroit on Thanksgiving is as traditional as cranberry sauce nobody eats. But unlike pre-2023, the Lions enter November as an actual contender — not just “the team we politely root for.” But this year, they are struggling more than we (and Dan Campbell) would have expected.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is deep into the Jordan Love evaluation chapter, which currently reads: “Promising, but occasionally forgets that defenders exist.”

Advanced Stats Buffet

  • Detroit Play-Action Efficiency: When the Lions use play-action, Jared Goff’s EPA/play jumps nearly 0.15, placing Detroit in the league’s top tier. Why? Because their run game forces safeties to cheat, and Amon-Ra St. Brown eats zones for breakfast.

  • Lions Offensive Line: Top-3 in pass block win rate and elite in interior protection. Goff loves a clean pocket the way your uncle loves lecturing about college football during dinner.

  • Green Bay Early-Down Passing: The Packers rank top-10 in early-down dropback EPA, meaning they start drives hot. On third downs, however, they drop to bottom-10.

  • Key WR Matchup: Christian Watson’s deep-threat ability pairs nicely with Detroit’s occasionally inconsistent deep coverage, which gives up chunk plays when forced into man.

Tactical Storyline

Green Bay’s only path to upsetting Detroit is pushing vertical early, forcing the Lions’ safeties to back off, then letting A.J. Dillon grind in short yardage. But Detroit can create long, punishing drives that put Green Bay’s defense in a blender.

Prediction: Lions 27, Packers 24. Lions cover the spread at home by a hair.

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Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys

The crown jewel of Thanksgiving 2025. Mahomes. Dak. Prime-time cameras. Jerry Jones probably in a suit made of gold thread. This is the kind of game that makes the NFL schedule makers high-five in their conference room. And they should be - they believe this will be the most watched NFL game...EVER.

Advanced Stats Entree

  • Mahomes vs. Zone Coverage: Dallas primarily plays zone concepts, and Mahomes ranks top-3 in EPA/dropback vs zone, carving up intermediate windows. His efficiency skyrockets especially on crossers between 8–18 air yards, where Kelce and KC’s motion-heavy designs thrive.

  • Cowboys Defense (The Elephant in the Stadium): Dallas sits bottom-five in yards and points allowed in 2025. Opposing QBs post a passer rating nearly 20 points higher than league average when Dallas fails to generate pressure. Now, they've been better since Quinnen Williams has been in the building. But will he really affect the pass-heavy KC attack enough to matter?

  • KC Red-Zone Aggression: KC passes in the red zone more than any team in the league. This is because:

    • Patrick Mahomes exists

    • Andy Reid refuses to call normal plays like “run the ball”

    • Motion and misdirection create linebackers’ worst nightmares

  • Dak Prescott Splits: Dak’s EPA spikes against man coverage but dips against combo coverages and disguised pressure fronts — which KC uses frequently. KC’s defense isn’t elite, but it throws enough disguises to create one or two drive-killing moments per game.

Tactical Storyline

This is a pace game. If Dallas can create long time-of-possession drives, they keep Mahomes off the field. But if Dallas’ defense breaks early, KC can force a pass-heavy script that exposes the Cowboys’ weaknesses. Expect a high-scoring Thanksgiving showpiece.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 24. The dynasty continues, at least for now.

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Cincinatti Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

These teams could play checkers in the offseason and it would still end in injuries and animosity. Bengals–Ravens is always violent, always meaningful, and usually comes down to the final possession.

Advanced Stats Dessert

  • Ravens Havoc Rate: Baltimore leads the NFL in "havoc", meaning almost 1 in 4 plays ends in a tackle for loss, sack, pass break-up, forced fumble or general crisis for the offense.

  • Joe Burrow vs. Pressure: Burrow’s EPA drops nearly 0.30 under pressure, and Baltimore is elite at generating disguised blitzes without sacrificing coverage integrity.

  • Ja’Marr Chase Usage: Cincinnati funnels critical third downs to Chase at one of the highest rates in the league (over 35% of high-leverage targets). Baltimore’s answer? A rotation of physical DBs who reroute receivers like TSA agents on a holiday weekend.

  • Lamar vs Two-High: Lamar Jackson has quietly become one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks versus two-high shells, averaging 9+ YPA, and Baltimore’s shift to more layered route concepts has paid major dividends.

Tactical Storyline

This game hinges on trench warfare. If Burrow gets a reasonably clean pocket, Cincinnati can absolutely win. If he’s pressured early and often, this becomes a Ravens tempo game built on long drives and explosive Lamar plays.

Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 22. We're betting the Bengals rivalry on Thanksgiving finally wakes Lamar and the Ravens from their season-long slumber.