A Return to Normalcy in Week 4
We will remember Week 4 was the weekend the NFL returned to normal, which, maybe that’s what we should have expected. No one plays in preseason anymore, so perhaps the new normal (especially when we go to an 18-game season) is that players, coaches and teams will just use the first three weeks as a warm-up, and fans will just have to buckle up and wonder what the hell happened…
Nevertheless, this Week 4 felt (mostly) normal. Good quarterbacks played good. Bad quarterbacks played terribly. Teams we expect to score points scored points (hooray for points!). Maybe we won’t have to ban 2-high safeties after all. And good coaches, who lead good programs, did what we expected them to do – win. Week 4 saw the Lions offense dominate, the Chiefs win AGAIN (we’ll get to them later), the Ravens run rough-shod over their opponent with Derrick Henry, and the Bucs absolutely clobber the Eagles (that’s normal at this point…right?).
We also saw a few games games that were absolutely terrible, and barely worth mentioning in a weekly recap – Browns vs. Raiders, Titans vs. Dolphins, Jets vs. Broncos. But the quarterbacks in those games? Deshaun Watson, Gardner Minshew, Will Levis replaced by Mason Rudolph, Tyler Huntley, Bo Nix and…Aaron Rodgers. So, yes. Despite Aaron Rodgers, who hasn’t really been an elite quarterback since 2021, we expected these games to be terrible as well.
We can all breathe a sigh a relief. Whew. And while we’re doing that, let’s get into the takeaways that actually mattered from Week 4 of the NFL.
Has dominance ever looked less dominant? There are only two 4-0 teams left in the NFL, and one of them is, of course, the two-time defending champion Chiefs. Ho hum. The Chiefs win again. Except, this wasn’t ho hum. The Chiefs turned the ball over on their first two possessions, and spotted the Chargers 10 points. Of course, we know all-world QB Patrick Mahomes likes to come back from 10+ points down, so no big deal, right? But in this one, he also decided to throw an interception on a play where an aging Travis Kelce couldn’t (or wouldn't) go up to get the pass, and Mahomes proceeded to dive directly into their best (and only?) receiver’s right knee...likely putting him out for the season. If you were watching this game, it all spelled disaster a quarter in. Yet somehow, the Chiefs won – which is what the Chiefs do. In fact, the Chiefs have now won their last 10 games, including the playoffs, by a combined 60 points! Take out a relatively dominant 26-7 win over the Dolphins in minus-30 degree weather, and that’s 9 games by 41 points. An average of ~4.5 points per game, which is insanity. The Chiefs have mastered the art of winning however they have to. Sometimes it’s a dominant defense. Sometimes it’s Mahomes coming up with a game-winning drive. Sometimes it’s Harrison Butker being downright awesome. It doesn’t matter – they just win. This year? They’ve won 4 games in which they’ve scored progressively less points every week, and seem to lose as key piece of their offense every week. It’s the latter part that has to be most concerning, and leaving us to wonder whether the Chiefs can keep this up. At this rate, the Chiefs will be relying on Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney as their best receivers in the playoffs, which isn’t a recipe for success, right? Oh wait…it already was. But it certainly doesn’t seem like the right recipe – especially if your defense is slightly less dominant than it was last year. We’ll wait and see what, if anything, Brett Veach does at the trade deadline, but here’s to guessing he won't sit still with a three-peat on the line.
What Dominance is supposed to look like: While we’re left being unimpressed by the champs, the Detroit Lions stepped up to the plate on Monday night and showed us what a dominant team is supposed to look like. They beat the previously undefeated Seahawks 42-29, and did it dominant, Dan Campbell knee-biting fashion. What does that mean? OC Ben Johnson finally got back to what this team is built to do best – run the football. Jahmyr Gibbs has 14 rushes for 78 yards, David Montgomery 12 for 40. And even though they averaged barely over 4 yards/rush, it felt like way more with Montgomery bludgeoning Seattle defenders (we’re sorry Devon Witherspoon). And the ground game allowed Jared Goff to do what Jared Goff does best. Be SUPER efficient in the passing game. 18-18 for 292 yards. Yep, you heard that correctly. Goff and the Detroit receivers didn’t put a ball on the ground all night. This offense was ruthlessly efficient, and made everything look easy, especially when they needed a score to keep the Seahawks at arms length. St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, even Tim Patrick. When everything is right, I’m not sure there is a team in the league with a more elite, diverse set of playmakers. This is the team we all expected to show up from the start of the season. It took them three weeks – but thats okay. As previously discussed, its seems as though Weeks 1-3 are now the preseason. But now, the Lions are here to claim their spot as the team to beat in the NFC.
But wait, the Vikings are still winning: Sam Darnold’s ears are ringing from that last comment about the Lions. How are the Lions the team to beat in the NFC, when there’s a team in their own division that is undefeated, and has beaten, wait for it – the Giants, Niners, Texans and Packers. Throw out the first one, sure – but the Niners, Texans and Packers are all supposed to be legitimate title contenders. And all the Vikings have done is handle all three of them en route to an undefeated 4-0 start. And while the Packers mounted a late comeback to make this one looked respectable, the Vikings really dominated the game, which has been a theme the entire season. The Vikings have played the most difficult schedule to date, and have been dominant in all 4 games. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but we HAVE to take Sam Darnold and the Vikings seriously. We covered this last week, but they may be the best coached team in the league, and the most balanced in terms of having both an elite offense (12th in DVOA but the eyes tell us it’s much better) and elite defense (1st in DVOA). And while Sam Darnold is getting all of the publicity, this offense is built around so much more. The best receiver on the planet (no, it’s not you Ja’Marr Chase), a legitimate #2 in Jordan Addison, a rejuvenated Aaron Jones and legitimate offensive line. And by the way, T.J. Hockensen, who is a top 3 Tight-end in the NFL according to our Threat ratings, is eligible to come off IR next week. If you take out a rowdy division game against the Lions, 9 of the Vikings next 10 games look like this: vs. the Jets, at Rams, vs. Colts, at Jaguars, at Titans, at Bears, vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. the Bears. There is a legitimate chance that they are 13-1 after that stretch. This is the advantage of the NFL’s unbalanced schedule. If you don’t have Minnesota with a chance to be the #1 seed in the NFC on your bingo card, it might be time to throw out your card, as Cody Alexander would say.
It’s time to start taking the Commanders seriously: We’ve talked about the Chiefs. We’ve talked about the Lions. We’ve talked about the Vikings. So now it’s naturally time to talk about…the Commanders? Yes. Outside of the aforementioned monsters of the NFC North, the Commanders, led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels, might be the next most legitimate contender in the NFC. A week after absolutely shredding Lou Anarumo and the Bengals defense, the Commanders did the same to Jonathan Gannon and the Cardinals defense. This team makes scoring look easy, and it all starts with their rookie quarterback. Daniels makes everything look easy, even when it’s not. He has pinpoint accuracy - he’s completed 82% of his passes through 4 games – the highest % EVER for a quarterback in any season, ever in the NFL - and when he decides to run he is seemingly a step faster than everyone else. The kid isn't phased by anything, and together with OC Kliff Kingsbury, has the Commanders as the second ranked offensive in the NFL according to DVOA. The two appear to be a perfect pairing. And while we still have questions about the Commanders defense, the one thing Dan Quinn has shown an ability to do is lead a good defense. He is also an amazing culture builder, and it is clear 4 games in that a combination of Quinn, a quarterback that appears to have “IT”, and new ownership has turned around a franchise that’s been in the dumps for two decades. It’s time to start taking the Commanders seriously. Couple their rise with a bunch of contenders that seem to be crumbling around them, and the Commanders have a legit shot to win the NFC East.
Coaches and Quarterbacks matter more than anything else: We finish off our conversation of dominant teams by talking about the Ravens absolutely dominating Josh Allen and the Bills in all three phases on Sunday night. And while we could talk about the ins and outs of the game, the takeaway here is really simple: above all else, good coaches and good quarterbacks are what matter in the NFL. Two weeks ago, we all wanted to write the Ravens off after an 0-2 start, and an admittedly dismal loss to the Raiders. You know what we forgot? John Harbaugh has been running an elite program in Baltimore for years. 16 years to be exact. And barring a set of catastrophic injuries, they are always good. Always. Throw in an elite, unicorn of a quarterback in Lamar Jackson, and it is stupid for us to think that the Ravens aren’t going to be in the mix as an AFC title and Super Bowl contender. Harbaugh has shown us that he runs an elite program that knows how to win. Just like Andy Reid. Just like Sean McDermott. Just like Kyle Shanahan. Not like Nick Sirianni (oh wait…that was supposed to be in the previous paragraph). Coaching matters in football more so than any other sport. It’s a unique mixture of culture, effort, talent and strategy, and some people have proven that they know how to blend those ingredients together year after year. John Harbaugh is one of them, and it’s stupid for us to forget this. Oh, and now that we’ve seen Lamar Jackson’s dynamic attack in the backfield with Derrick Henry, we can attest that this is another pretty good reason to like what the Raven’s are building. They might be the only ground game that is scarier than Detroit’s, and that with an ascending defense is a recipe for success as we move through the season.
I think that’s it for our Week 4 takeaways. For a weekend, the NFL felt normal. And that’s a good thing. I’m sure it won’t last long. We’ll see you next week…which starts in only 2 days. Man we love the NFL. As always, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.
