A Closer Look at the QB's Behind Monster Receiver Seasons
Earlier this off season, we took a look at the top 10 EPA seasons by wide receivers from 2019-2023. There were a lot of interesting takeaways to glean from it. Not the least of which was that over the course of 5 seasons, only one player (Tyreek Hill) managed to have two seasons in the top 10. Why is that?
There are a lot of possibilities. Options include health, the natural ups and downs over a career, players moving in and out of their primes, as well as receivers who didn’t enter the league until after 2019. That said, one factor stands out above the rest to me. The fact is wide receiver is more dependent on another player than any other position in football. Here is the list of quarterbacks, in order of receiver production, that helped create the top 10 EPA seasons for receivers:
2019 Drew Brees
2021 Matthew Stafford
2023 Dak Prescott
2023 Tua Tagovailoa
2019 Tom Brady
2021 Kirk Cousins
2020 Patrick Mahomes
2022 Josh Allen
2020 Aaron Rodgers
2023 Jared Goff
Four of the quarterbacks on this list (Brees, Brady, Mahomes, and Rodgers) are all timers and have rarely had a bad season. The rest were having were having one of the best seasons of their career in the season that their star receiver produced a top 10 EPA season. If you take those previously mentioned quarterbacks out and examine the other 6, here is what you find:
Matthew Stafford had a career high 41 touchdown passes and led his team to the Super Bowl 56 title in 2021 while Cooper Cupp produced a triple crown season leading the league in receptions, yards, and touchdown catches with 145 receptions, 1947 yards 16 touchdowns.
Dak Prescott was a 2nd team All Pro and second in MVP voting in 2023 while Ceedee Lamb had a career year with 135 catches and 1,749 yards to go with 12 touchdowns.
Tua Tagovailoa was a Pro Bowler in 2023 and had a career high in passing yards, touchdowns and completion percentage as Tyreek Hill led the league in receiving yards with 1,799.
Kirk Cousins made 1 of his 4 Pro Bowls in 2021 and had his second highest touchdown season with 33 as Justin Jefferson posted 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Josh Allen is a few great seasons and a super bowl title away from being lumped in with the 4 all-timers on this list, but 2022 may have been the best overall passing season of his career when he had a 73.4 QBR and thre for 35 touchdowns against just 14 interceptions finishing 3rd in MVP voting as Stefon Diggs posted 108 receptions for 1429 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Jared Goff didn’t rack up the awards in 2023 but he produced another stellar season and led the Lions to the NFC Championship game while producing a 97.9 passer rating and a 60.3 QBR helping Amon-Ra St. Brown post 119 receptions, 1515 yards and 10 touchdowns, all career highs.
Another interesting thing to note is that none of the receivers on this list besides Michael Thomas in 2019 had their quarterback miss more than 1 game in their respective monster seasons. It makes what Thomas did in 2019 even more impressive since Drew Brees played only 11 games and the other 5 were started and won, I might add, by Teddy Bridgewater.
The 2019 Michael Thomas season was truly historic. He had a record 149 catches and took home AP Offensive Players of the Year honors in a season rivaled only by Kupp’s triple crown campaign.
Unfortunately for Thomas, he’s been unable to crack the list since. There are a lot of reasons for that, not the least of which is health. However, without Drew Brees in the fold for the last 3 seasons, he may not have had another year of epic proportions anyways. As you can see, when it comes to elite production at the wide receiver position, it depends a ton on who is throwing you the ball..